VIMS Developing Tool to Help Anglers Avoid Unproductive 'Dead-Zone' Water

By Ken Neill III - Daily Press - The Chesapeake Bay is often plagued with oxygen-poor “dead zones.” These dead zones occur more frequently in the warmer months of the peak fishing season. 

These low-oxygen areas are avoided by fish. It would help anglers to know where these zones are so that they can avoid them also. The Virginia Institute of Marine Science is developing a tool to help with that. The VIMS’ daily dead-zone forecast will help anglers avoid unproductive water, vims.edu/research/topics/dead_zones/forecasts/cbay/index.php

Excerpted from: http://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-spt-fishing-report-0826-20160825-story.html

Scientists to Help Fisherman Avoid Chesapeake Bay Dead Zones

NORFOLK, Va. (AP) — Scientists say they will soon help Chesapeake Bay fisherman by mapping the water's low-oxygen dead zones in real time.

Poor oxygen levels often force fish out of the bay's cool bottom waters. William and Mary's Virginia Institute of Marine Science says it will show anglers where the fish may have gone.

The university says it's using experimental computer models to map and forecast the bay's dead zones. The oxygen-poor areas are created when excess nitrogen from fertilizers and wastewater flow into the water and boost the growth of algae.

The university says that charter boat captains looking for striped bass will be able to use the forecasts to plan where they'll fish.

Excerpted from: http://www.michigansthumb.com/news/article/Scientists-to-help-fisherman-avoid-Chesapeake-Bay-9162446.php

Researchers Issue Real-Time Forecasts of Chesapeake Bay Dead Zone

By David Malmquist, VIMS 

An experimental forecast from William & Mary’s Virginia Institute of Marine Science will soon help Chesapeake Bay anglers better plan for the appearance of low-oxygen “dead zones.”

Dead zones form when excess nitrogen from fertilizers, wastewater, and other sources enters coastal waters and fuels short-lived blooms of algae. Bacteria then eat the dead, sinking algae, consuming dissolved oxygen from surrounding waters.

Predicting the general outline and seasonality of dead zones is fairly straightforward—a large pool of oxygen-poor water typically occupies the deeper parts of the Bay’s main channel during the summer doldrums, when hot weather drives gases from the water and encourages algal growth, while calm winds minimize the waves and currents that would otherwise help mix relatively oxygen-rich surface waters into the depths.

But predicting day-to-day changes in the size and shape of the Bay’s dead zone is more of a challenge—and exactly where VIMS’ forecast will add value to anglers searching for striped bass and other cool-water species. When oxygen declines in the deeper, cooler waters these fishes prefer, they are forced from their habitual haunts into areas where anglers might not think to look.

Professor Marjy Friedrichs, who leads development of VIMS’ daily dead-zone forecasts, says “We held a stakeholders meeting this spring to better understand how charter boat captains and others on the Bay might use our modeling capabilities, and what kinds of forecasts would be most useful. They were enthusiastic about a short-term dead-zone forecast and said they could use it to help plan where they’re going to fish.”

Friedrichs is collaborating on the dead-zone model and forecasts with researchers at VIMS and from around the region. Colleagues include fellow VIMS researchers Dr. Carl Friedrichs and Dr. David Forrest, Dr. Raleigh Hood of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) and Dr. Malcolm Scully of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

The researchers’ ultimate plan is to incorporate their real-time forecasts into more comprehensive monitoring and prediction products such as NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy System (CBIBS) and the Mid-Atlantic Regional Association Coastal Ocean Observing System. MARACOOS is part of NOAA’s larger Integrated Ocean Observing System, or IOOS. Major funding for the team’s work comes from the IOOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed managed by the Southeastern Universities Research Association.

VIMS’ real-time daily forecasts of Bay dead zones are enabled by use of a computer model that simplifies the Bay’s complex biology while still accurately simulating the Bay’s physical dynamics. It complements the seasonal predictions of Bay oxygen developed by NOAA-sponsored researchers at UMCES and the University of Michigan, as well as the more comprehensive water-quality models used by NOAA, the Environmental Protection Agency, and other agencies to track the restoration of Bay health.

“Our model is much simpler than the complex models used to predict overall water quality in the Bay,” says Marjy Friedrichs, “but it predicts dead-zone dynamics just about as well.”

Forrest—borrowing from the world of finance—says forecasting with the dead-zone model “is like using an index fund to predict trends in the stock market,” rather than betting on the ups and downs of individual companies. “Our biology is represented by a single setting in the model,” adds Carl Friedrichs, “while in the more complicated models the biology is interacting with lots of other factors, and thus often changing.”

The upshot of these differences? If the more complex models—with up to five different groups of interacting organisms—get all the biology right, their predicted oxygen levels can be highly accurate. But if they get it wrong for even one group, say an incorrect respiration rate for a particular type of algae, their real-time prediction may be well off the mark. The dead-zone model, on the other hand, charts a middle course—with real-time forecasts that are unlikely to be exactly right, but also less likely to be wildly wrong, and more often than not within a reasonable range of observed values.

The new VIMS product—officially known as the VIMS Hypoxia Forecast Tool—uses three maps to characterize oxygen levels in the bottom waters of Chesapeake Bay. The first map simulates current conditions, what the scientists call a “nowcast.” The second forecasts oxygen levels three days in the future. The third shows the difference between the nowcast and the three-day forecast, in terms of a percent change in oxygen per day.

Marjy Friedrichs says the forecast interval was based on input from charter boat captains during this spring’s stakeholders’ workshop. “They told us they choose their fishing sites within three days of heading out, and we also had concerns about the accuracy of weather forecasts beyond that time.” Simulations with the dead-zone model depend on NOAA forecasts of wind speed and direction, as well as data on the volume of tributary flow provided by the U.S. Geological Survey.

The modeling team is also working to implement additional stakeholder suggestions. One is to provide output from other dissolved-oxygen models for comparison with the current forecast. This “ensemble” approach—used also in forecasting hurricane tracks—can lend credence to forecast values and help improve model accuracy. Another plan is to provide forecasts of salinity and water temperature, also parameters that anglers use to locate fish. A third enhancement is to compare predicted oxygen values with those observed at the 10 CBIBS buoys around the Bay. The team plans to initiate this comparison with Gooses Reef, the only CBIBS buoy that now provides real-time readings of dissolved oxygen on the bayfloor.

Other possible enhancements, but further down the road, include extending the forecast into shallower areas. Because of the resolution limits of the current model, the present forecast is limited to waters deeper than about 15 feet.

Excerpted from http://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/cb_hypoxia_fcst.php

VIMS Student Pursues Summer Internship at the White House

VIMS graduate student Ike Irby (right) gave his advisor Marjy Friedrichs (center) and VIMS Professor Carl Friedrichs (left) a tour of the White House when they stopped by Washington D.C. this summer.

by Erin Fryer -- Graduate student Isaac (Ike) Irby of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science recently returned from Washington D.C. where he spent his summer working with the nation’s top scientists within the Executive Office of the President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).

Irby, a Ph.D. student in William & Mary’s School of Marine Science at VIMS, was selected for the prestigious internship within the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) housed within OSTP. As a federal advisory committee, PCAST consists of leading scientists and engineers who make policy recommendations to President Obama in areas where understanding science, technology, and innovation is key.

“PCAST is constructed as an avenue for President Obama to gain advice from non-governmental scientists,” says Irby. “The group of 20 exemplary scientists helps strategize what the science agenda should be and what issues the President might want to focus on, as well as topics the President himself tasks the Council to examine.”

A graduate of Bowdoin College, Irby came to VIMS in 2012 to pursue his Master’s degree, which he later bypassed to complete his doctorate while simultaneously completing a Master’s of Public Policy at W&M. The joint degree is offered by the College’s Thomas Jefferson Program, which provides students with the intellectual tools needed to improve the quality of policymaking in the United States and abroad.

Irby’s graduate advisor, VIMS Research Associate Professor Marjorie Friedrichs, describes the joint degree program as being extremely demanding, and says Irby has had to juggle a heavy class load on W&M’s campus while keeping up with his classes and modeling research at VIMS. “While the program might not be for everyone, I’m hoping that Ike’s raising awareness at VIMS so that more students will take advantage of this unique opportunity.”

As an intern, Irby helped develop reports to advise President Obama on pertinent issues encompassing all aspects of science and technology. After arriving in the nation’s capitol, Irby put his background in marine science to use right away by helping to put together an oceans panel, which was established to inform PCAST advisors on current pressing issues in ocean science, including ocean acidification, sea-level rise, ocean-observing technologies, and the nation’s dwindling research fleet.

In addition to the oceans panel, Irby says he helped develop reports on issues such as combating antibiotic resistance, enhancing the role of education technology in training the nation’s middle-skill workforce, and the National Nanotechnology Initiative.

Friedrichs says she was thrilled when she first learned Irby had been selected for the internship. “I knew this would be an amazing experience that will help shape his view of government and science policy throughout his future career,” she says.

While he enjoyed his summer in the White House and would jump at the opportunity to work with OSTP again, Irby says his long-term goal is to help developing countries formulate their own ocean policies. “I want to help them realize that the ocean transcends international boundaries, and that we have to work together,” he says.

Irby says he took away several memories—both professionally and personally—from his summer in the White House, including the Fourth of July fireworks display and concert on the White House lawn, and being asked by a secret service officer to fill an empty seat near the front of the room during a Presidential Address.

VIMS graduate student Ike Irby snaps a photo with Bill Nye during the first-ever White House Maker Faire.Professionally speaking, Irby says his favorite project from the summer was getting to take part in the first-ever White House Maker Faire. “This event brought in top innovators—young and old—from across the nation to showcase the great things Americans are making using science and technology,” he says. During the event, Irby even managed to snap a quick “selfie” with Bill Nye the Science Guy.“My time at OSTP reaffirmed my goal of pursuing national and international science advisory after the completion of my degrees,” says Irby. “The opportunity to work at the White House under a President who holds science and technology in such high regard was an incredibly motivating experience that will guide me headlong into future endeavors.”

“Ike’s background in ocean modeling and policy will open so many doors for him after he graduates,” says Friedrichs. “I can’t wait to see what path he chooses.”VIMS graduate student Ike Irby snaps a photo with Bill Nye during the first-ever White House Maker Faire.Professionally speaking, Irby says his favorite project from the summer was getting to take part in the first-ever White House Maker Faire. “This event brought in top innovators—young and old—from across the nation to showcase the great things Americans are making using science and technology,” he says. During the event, Irby even managed to snap a quick “selfie” with Bill Nye the Science Guy.“My time at OSTP reaffirmed my goal of pursuing national and international science advisory after the completion of my degrees,” says Irby. “The opportunity to work at the White House under a President who holds science and technology in such high regard was an incredibly motivating experience that will guide me headlong into future endeavors.”

“Ike’s background in ocean modeling and policy will open so many doors for him after he graduates,” says Friedrichs. “I can’t wait to see what path he chooses.”

Excerpted from: http://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/irby_ostp.php

Dead Zone in Upper Bay Hasn't Shrunk, Now 5th Largest for Late-August

By Tamara Dietrich, tdietrich@dailypress.com

The dead zone bedeviling the upper Chesapeake Bay still hasn't shrunk in overall size and now is considered the fifth-largest in 30 years of record-keeping, experts say.

New data just released by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources shows that the oxygen-starved portion of the bay was still 1.32 cubic miles in late August, although the portion that extends into Virginia's lower bay had shrunk a bit since early-August testing.

The findings come from water samples taken every two weeks throughout the summer during science cruises along the bay's main stem. The effort is funded by Virginia and Maryland in partnership with the Chesapeake Bay Program under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Local researchers say they're not surprised by the data, but caution against drawing broad conclusions before the summer is over.

"Given that the wet spring brought in above-normal nutrient loads, and the weather was less windy in August than in July, it makes sense that the larger-than-average dead zone that appeared in early August persisted throughout the month," said Marjy Friedrichs, a biologist at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) in Gloucester Point. Friedrichs studies dead zone phenomena.

Measurements of the dead zone in early August constituted the eighth-largest on record for that time period. But because Virginia's portion of the dead zone has receded a bit since then, she said she wouldn't describe this summer as a "record year" overall for bay dead zones.

Dead zones are caused when massive amounts of algae bloom and then decay, sucking up dissolved oxygen in a water column and suffocating marine life.

Algae blooms are fueled by nitrogen and phosphorus dumped into the estuary by stormwater runoff from fertilized cropland, suburban lawns and sewage overflows.

Forecasters funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted bigger dead zones this summer after rains earlier in the year dumped about 20 percent more nitrogen into the bay, mostly from the Susquehanna and Potomac rivers.

But weather also plays a role in dead zones, and can quickly alter their formation and size. In July, for instance, researchers recorded the smallest dead zone in 30 years of sampling, mostly because Hurricane Arthur passing along the coast had churned up and oxygenated the water.

"The rapid changes in the size of the dead zone between monitoring cruises this summer highlight two properties of the dead zone we've been studying at VIMS," said Carl Friedrichs, chairman of the physical sciences department at VIMS. He is married to Marjy Friedrichs.

"First, weather patterns can cause very large changes in the size of the dead zone in both space and time. And second, the boat-based measurements performed once every two weeks lead to uncertainties in the estimated size of the dead zone.

"It may not make sense to focus too much on the results of a single cruise in a single state," he added. "It might make more sense to sum up the size of the dead zone over the entire bay and over the entire summer before concluding that it is larger or smaller than in past years."

Reposted from: http://articles.dailypress.com/2014-09-07/news/dp-nws-dead-zone-update-20140907_1_dead-zone-marine-science-chesapeake-bay-program

Virginia's Lower Bay Dodges the Record Dead Zone of the Upper Bay

A file photo shows a catch of dead fish and crabs that taken while trawling in the Chesapeake Bay. Oxygen-deprived dead zones, such as the one that hit the northern bay this summer, suffocate marine life. (Photo Courtesy VIMS/Daily Press)

By Tamara Dietrich, tdietrich@dailypress.com

The forecast for bigger dead zones in the Chesapeake Bay this summer finally bore out last month — at least for the upper bay.

The Maryland Department of Natural Resources reported the eighth largest dead zone on record for early August, a 1.32-cubic-mile swath from Maryland's Chesapeake Bay Bridge to the Potomac River with oxygen levels so low it was deadly to marine life.

Virginia's lower bay, meanwhile, has largely beat the odds and the forecast, compared to years past. The prediction was announced in June by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Oxygen loss that's severe enough to kill blue crabs is called hypoxia. When it's low enough to kill all aquatic animals short of the microscopic, it's called anoxia.

The lower bay is less prone to dead zones in part because of its proximity to the oxygen-rich Atlantic Ocean, which helps aerate its shallower waters.

Weather and other environmental factors can also help keep a dead zone from developing — storms and winds can whip up and oxygenate the water, and lower temperatures can impede algae growth.

In fact, the bay also recorded its smallest dead zone for July in 30 years of data collection largely because Hurricane Arthur passed along the coast, roiling and mixing the water column.

"We had no anoxia at all in Virginia so far this summer," said Carl Friedrichs, chairman of the physical sciences department of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science in Gloucester Point. "I would think that's perhaps because of Hurricane Arthur's effects."

Snapshots and the big picture

Every year in early summer, NOAA-funded researchers forecast dead zone activity for the bay based on the amount of nitrogen flushed into it from the Susquehanna and Potomac rivers.

Then twice a month throughout the summer scientists cruise the main stem of the bay to sample oxygen levels and compare them to forecast models. Data from early August is the most recent publicly available.

VIMS helps analyze and model the data, but Friedrichs said the samples can only offer temporary "snapshots" of the bay — "It varies a lot from month to month."

In fact, NOAA hasn't released its most recent data to indicate if there has been any change in last month's larger-than-average dead zone.

"Given the weather we've had lately," Friedrichs said, "I would guess that it's increased. But it also could have decreased."

Friedrichs and his wife, VIMS biologist Marjy Friedrichs, are honing forecast models that could one day help fill the data gaps between the bi-monthly bay surveys.

With NOAA funding, the two are working with NOAA's Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System to add the size and location of dead zones to its predictions. Predictions currently include tide levels, currents, salinity and temperature based on rapidly changing winds and air temperature.

But fuller short-term forecasts that include dead-zone data, they said, could one day be used by commercial fishermen and recreational anglers to help find the best fishing grounds each day, for instance, or warn them to pull crab pots to avoid hypoxic areas.

They could also be used to help pinpoint the cause of a dead zone, whether it be weather, which can't be managed, or nutrient input, which can.

A better understanding of dead zones could also lead to better fisheries management in the bay for key migratory species such a striped bass and blue crabs.

Friedrichs said they hope to have their models operational within a year.

Excerpted from http://articles.dailypress.com/2014-09-03/news/dp-nws-bay-dead-zone-20140904_1_lower-bay-dead-zone-chesapeake-bay-foundation

Governor’s School Students Complete Summer Apprenticeships

Front row from L: Project Coordinator Dr. Rochelle Seitz and mentor Megan Wood. Back row from L: student John Lee Huguenin, mentors Melissa Karp and Danielle Tarpley, student Jessica Sydnor, mentor Heidi Brightman, student Nick Wolher, mentor Annie Murphy, students Eleanor Grace and Kelly Salyer, mentor Dr. Elizabeth Canuel, and student Kristen Choi. Photo by Erin Kelly

By Erin Fryer

The VIMS Governor's School is a 4-week summer program that has been providing high-achieving high school students with authentic experiences in marine research since 1993. Each summer, VIMS hosts up to 6 students who have demonstrated interest in and aptitude for marine science. The program is administered in tandem with a similar program at NASA Langley.

VIMS Research Associate Professor Rochelle Seitz, who has served as director of the program since 2005, says the apprenticeships offer a wide variety of research opportunities. “Each student’s experience is as different as their mentors’ research interests,” she says. “What they all gain is a deeper understanding of their specific project and a greater appreciation for the challenges and rewards of marine research.”

Jack Huguenin, a rising junior at Central High School in Wise, was mentored by Seitz and graduate student Melissa Karp. Their project was to observe whether the size and shape of an oyster reef might influence habitat selection by mud crabs.

Joining Huguenin in the VIMS program were Kristin Choi (Ocean Lakes High School, Virginia Beach); Ellie Grace (Potomac Falls High School, Loudon County); Kelly Salyer (John S. Battle High School, Bristol); Jessica Sydnor (Poquoson High School, Poquoson); and Nicklaus Wohler (Riverbend High School, Fredricksburg).

Sydnor, a rising senior, worked with VIMS professor Courtney Harris and graduate student Danielle Smith, using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and MATLAB to improve hydrodynamic modeling of salinity dynamics in the York River.

“My future goal is to become either a mathematician or chemist that works within the field of marine science,” says Syndor. “My new-found familiarity with MATLAB will prove to be a very useful tool in my future career.”

Grace, who attends the Loudon Academy of Science in Northern Virginia in addition to Potomac Falls High School, hopes to double major in environmental science and graphic design when she heads off to college.

Mentored by VIMS Professor Iris Anderson and graduate student Annie Murphy, Grace worked on a project to determine if commercial clam farming impacts the diversity of organisms that burrow within underlying sediments. “Essentially, we calculated biodiversity indices for the organisms found within sediment core samples, then compared those indices for cores retrieved from areas within clam beds and in bare sediment to see if clam farming does indeed affect the infaunal communities.”

With their high school careers coming to an end, Grace, Huguenin, and Sydnor are all considering pursuing their undergraduate degrees at the College of William & Mary.

“This program is important for the students to gain hands-on experience in marine science research so that they can better determine whether this is a discipline they would like to pursue for a career,” says Seitz. “Some of our past Governor's School students have even gone on to apply to the College of William & Mary’s School of Marine Science at VIMS.”

Excerpted from http://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/gov_school_14.php